De kostbare klimaatobsessie van de EU

Inderdaad: COP24 is een concilie.
Onze klimaatwet een encycliek.
Onze voorouders plaatsten kapelletjes langs de weg met heiligenbeeldjes en een vaasje verse bloemen om hun waardering voor de schepping te tonen. Maar voor de nieuwe prelaten is dat niet voldoende, die eisen miljarden kostende offers en zelfkastijding.
Ook tonen zij geen liefde maar beschouwen de mensheid als “kanker van de aarde”.
Hemel en aarde dienen gescheiden te blijven.
Maar nu bemoeit de nieuwe geestelijkheid (milieu bewegingen) zich met aardse energie opwekking.
Dat gaat volkomen fout.

Stel nu dat de temperatuur tijdens de tweede wereldoorlog was opgelopen en in Rusland dezelfde winters waren als heden. Dan hadden wij nu Duits gesproken. Wat is er mis met een opwarming, de grootste beschavingen bestonden tijdens warme periodes. En het wordt op de polen warmer, nu dat is natuurlijk een ramp wanneer de temperatuur van -10 naar -8 gaat (gemiddeld). De boomgrens schuift op en er kan meer landbouw gepleegd worden. En alle doemscenario’s, meer regen.. dat hebben wij van de zomer gezien. Even voor alle duidelijkheid, de zomer was op Groenland, China en Argentinië kouder als normaal.
Steek energie hoe wij betaalbare energie kunnen winnen en niet West Brabant vol zetten met windmolens of zonnepanelen. En vervolgens ook het ene naar het andere distributiecentrum uit de grond te stampen. Ga verspilling te lijf maar kom niet steeds aan met verwijzingen naar studies van profeten die ook brood eten.

Ronald 7 dec 2018 18.18 uur
Hoe kom je er toch bij dat Lomborg een uitbijter is t.o.v andere studies?
Degenen die wat hij de litany verkondigers noemde zijn dat eerder: een handje vol milieu alarmisten.
Verontschuldiging als ik weer met een lange lijst kom van doomsday predikers anno 2001 en ga eens na wat er ruim 15 jaar later van hun pessimistische voorspellingen terecht is gekomen.
Appendix II (bij hoofdstuk 6 Science Friction)
Statements by environmental pessimists, verzameld uit het boek van Bjørn Lomborg
(De p. verwijst naar het paginanummer, de r. naar het nummer van de noot in The skeptical environmentalist.)

8.8.1 General statements
1. Our resources are running out. The population is ever growing, leaving less and less to eat. Air and water are becoming even more polluted. The planet’s species are becoming extinct in vast numbers – we kill off more then 40,000 each year. The forests are disappearing, fish stocks are collapsing and the coral reefs are dying. We are defiling our Earth, the fertile topsoil is disappearing, we are paving over nature, destroying the wilderness, decimating the biosphere, and will end up killing ourselves in the process. The world’s ecosystem is breaking down. We are fast approaching the absolute limit of viability, and the limits of growth are becoming apparent (Asimov and Pohl 1991. p10, r12).
2. Throughout the past century humanity did everything in its power to dominate nature. We dammed earth’s rivers, chopped down the forests and depleted the soils. Burning up fossil fuels that had been created over eons, we pumped billions of tons of greenhouse gases into the air, altering atmospheric chemistry and appreciably warming the planet in just a few decades. And as our population entered the year 2000 above the 6 billion mark, still spreading across the continents, dozens of animal and plant species were going extinct every day, including the first primate to disappear in more than 100 years.
At the start of the 21st century there were signs that exploitation of the planet was reaching its limit – that nature was beginning to take its revenge. Melting ice in the Polar Regions suggested that the climate was changing rapidly. Weather was even more erratic than usual, giving some places too little rain and others too much. Fires race across the parched American West in summer, and recent storms spread devastation from Britain to Taiwan. No specific event could be directly blamed on global warming, but scientists say that in the greenhouse world, deluges and droughts will be more frequent and severe. Already the hotter climate has increased the range of tropical diseases such as malaria and yellow fever. Other ominous signals from an overburdened planet include failing grain and fish harvests and fiercer competition for scarce water supplies (Anon. in Time Magazine special edition 2001. p4, r11).
3. The balance of nature is delicate but essential for life. Humans have upset that balance, stripping the land of its green cover, choking the air, and poisoning the seas (Scott 1994. p3, r7).
4. For more than 40 years, earth has been sending out distress signals. The decline of Earth’s ecosystems has continued unabated (Linden, 2000. p3, r8).
5. Our oils are vanishing, fisheries being killed off, wells are drying up and the burning of fossil fuels is endangering the lives of millions. We are heading for cataclysm (New Scientist 2001. p4, r9).
6. The key environmental indicators are increasingly negative. Forests are shrinking, water tables are falling, soils are eroding, wetlands are disappearing, fisheries are collapsing, range-lands are deteriorating, rivers are running dry, temperatures are rising, coral reefs are dying, and plant and animal species are disappearing (WWI, 1998. p13, r71)
7. The problems arising since 1984 are population growth, soaring oil prices, debilitating levels of international debt, and extensive damage to forests from the new phenomenon of acid rain.
As we complete this 17th State of the World report, we are about to enter a new century having solved few of these problems. The bright promise of a new millennium is now clouded by unprecedented threats to humanity’s future (WWI 2000. p13, r79, r80).
8. As the global economy expands, local ecosystems are collapsing at an accelerating pace (WWI 2000, part II. p14, r87).

8. 8. 2 Population growth
9. Psychologically, the population explosion first sunk in on a stinking hot night in Delhi. The streets were alive with people. People eating, people washing themselves, people sleeping, people working, arguing and screaming. People reaching their hands in through taxi windows to beg. People shitting, people pissing, people hanging off buses. People driving animals through the streets. People, people, people (Ehrlich 1968. The population bomb, 1968. p48, r336).
10. The risk in a world adding nearly 80 million people annually is that so many sustainable yield thresholds will be crossed in such a short period of time, that the consequences will become unmanageable (WWI 2000. p15, r94).

8.8.3 Food and starvation
11. The food problem emerging in the less-developing regions may be one of the most nearly insoluble problems facing man over the next few decades (Brown 1965. p60, r415).
12 The battle to feed humanity is over. In the course of the 1970’s the world will experience starvation of tragic proportions – hundreds of millions of people will starve to death (Ehrlich 1968. p60, r412).
13. Grain yields are no longer improving as fast or have perhaps even stopped completely, because increasingly we are reaching the physiological limits of the plants (Brown and Kane 1994. p8, r39, r40).
14. Three billion people are malnourished, the largest number and the highest rate in history (Pimentel et al 1998. p24, r185).
15. Throughout the last 30 years of population increase the agricultural production could no longer keep up and prices would now start increasing (Brown 1997. p93, r609).
16. Rising world grain prices may be the first global economic indicator to tell us that the world is on an economic and demographic path that is environmentally unsustainable. An early hint of the shift to an economy of scarcity came in late April 1996, when wheat price on the Chicago board of Trade scored above $7 a bushel, the highest level in history and more than double the price a year earlier (WWI 1998. p93, r611).
17. The average amount of grain per inhabitant in the world grew until 1984 – indicating that the Green Revolution did work – but then it dropped by 11 percent thereafter (WWI 1994, 1997, 1999. p94, r614, r615).
18. In 1983 America produced 2.65 tons per hectare, however, since then, there has been no further rise. Japan’s rice yield in 1984 was 4.7 tons per hectare. Since then, it has levelled out. Farmers in the two countries appear to have hit the wall at about the same time.
We must start facing biological reality. It does seem likely that more countries will hit the wall in the years immediately ahead and eventually the rise in grain yields will level off everywhere. The world moves into an age of scarcity with price increases on grain (WWI 1998. p96 r637, r638, r639, r640).
19. Today human activity appropriates 40 percent of all land-based photosynthesis. A doubling of the population implies an appropriation of 80 percent. A 100 percent appropriation is both ecologically as well as socially impossible (Agger et al 1997. p99, r652).
20. China may soon emerge as an importer of massive quantities of grain – quantities so large, that they could trigger unprecedented rises in food prices. China is teaching us that the western industrial model is not viable, simply because there are not enough resources (WWI 1998. p102, r689, r690).
21. In 1984 we lost worldwide 25.4 billion tons of topsoil annually (Brown and Wolf 1984. p104, r712).
22. Pimentel estimated the global erosion at 75 billion tons of lost topsoil annually (Pimentel et al 1995. p104, r713, r716, r717).
23. The world’s farmers are struggling to feed more than 80 million more people each year, good weather or bad. And now for the first time in history, they can no longer count on fishing fleets to help them expand the food supply.
Humanity depends heavily on the oceans for food (WWI 1997, 2000. p106, r736, r737, r738).
24. In 1950 500 million people (20 percent of the world population) were considered malnourished. Today (1998) more than three billion people are malnourished, (one half of the world population), the largest number and the highest rate in history (Pimentel 1998. p24, r185, r188, r189).

8.8.4 Health
25. Forty percent of all deaths are caused by various environmental factors, especially organic and chemical pollutants. The consequence of more malnutrition and more pollution is more disease and more infectious disease (Pimentel 1998, p24, r186, r187).
26. Disease prevalence is projected to increase 77 percent during the period from 1990 to 2020. Infectious diseases, which cause 37 percent of all deaths throughout the world, are also expected to rise. Deaths in the US from infectious diseases increased 58 percent between 1980 and 1992 and this trend is projected to continue (Pimentel 1998, p26, r216, r207, r208, r210).
27. The public needs to be rescued from “the current cancer epidemic” (Kidd 2000, p216, r1626).
28. The cancer epidemic continues to rage around the world. The rising rates of cancer, infections and immune system dysfunctions, are a function of our increasingly polluted environment (Anon. 1997, Midlife Woman. p216, r1629, r1631).
29. The most dramatic and troubling sign that hormone disrupters may already have taken a major toll comes from reports that human male sperm counts have plummeted over the past half century (Colborn at al 1996. p238, r1853).
30. Chemical pollutants are a major cause of rapidly rising breast cancer rates worldwide (Greenpeace 1993. p242, r1919).
31. By far the most alarming health trend for women is the rising rate of breast cancer. The link to pesticides is made very clear (Colborn et al. 1996. p243, r1923, r1924).
32. Many forms of cancer are on the rise, not least in children, and mounting evidence suggests a strong correlation between pesticide exposure and the development of cancers in humans (Meyerhoff 1993. p245, r1957).

8.8.5 Water
33. Thirty countries containing 40 percent of the world’s population (2.3 billion) now experience chronic water shortage that threaten their agriculture and industry and the health of their people (Miller 1998. p20, r149, r150).
34. Time magazine summarizes the global water outlook with the title “wells running dry.” (Couzin 1998. p149, r1059).

8. 3.5 Forestry
35. The rate of forest loss in the Amazon rainforest had increased since 1992 by 34 percent a year. (WWF 1997. p9, r 45, r46)
36. Each year another 16 million hectares of forest disappear (WWI, 1998. p13, r75, r76).
37. The soaring demand for paper is contributing to deforestation, particularly in the Northern hemisphere. Canada is losing some 200,000 hectares of forest a year (WWI, 1998. p13, r77, r78).
38. A Time magazine environmental survey carries the headline “Forests: the global chainsaw massacre (Time 1997. p110, r760).
39. The World Research Institute simply calls it: “Deforestation: the global assault continues” (WRI 1998. p110, r761).
40. The WWF has disseminated a similar message on its website. The forest front page that greeted the visitor until April 1998 “We must ACT NOW to preserve the last remaining forests on Earth” (WWF 2000, p110).
41. WWF claims that “The world’s forests are disappearing at an alarming rate (WWF 1998. p110, r762).
42. WWF’s international president Claude Martin, in 1997 called a press conference named Eleventh Hour for World’s Forests. Here he said: I implore the leaders of the world to pledge to save their country’s remaining forests now – at the eleventh hour for the world’s forests. Equally he claimed that the area and quality of the world’s forests have continued to decline at a rapid rate (WWF 1997. p110, r763, 764).
43. Worldwatch Institute even claims that “deforestation has been accelerating in the last 30 years” (WWI 1998, p110, r765).
44. President Carter’s environmental report, Global 2000 estimated an annual tropical forest loss of between 2.3 and 4.8 percent (p113, r796).
45. Norman Myers estimated as recently as the early nineties that 2 percent of all forest was being destroyed every year and believed that by the year 2000 – in just nine years at the time of his prediction – we must have lost about a third of the tropical forest area. In just another few decades, we could witness the virtual elimination of tropical forests (Myers 1991. p113, r797, r798).
46. Estimates in the same range of 1.5-2 percent were common among biologists (Ravens and Prance 1991. p113, r799).
47. Even in July 2000, WWF argued for saving the Brazilian Amazon since, “The Amazon region has been called the lungs of the world” (p115, r819, r820).
48. The WWF proclaimed 1997 as the year the world caught fire, and their president, Claude Martin, stated unequivocally that this is not just an emergency, it is a planetary disaster. WWF maintained that in 1997 fire burned more forests than in any other time in history (WWF 1997. p116, r830).

8.8. 6 Energy
49. Here is the scenario: Sticker shock at the gas pumps, with prices nearly doubling overnight. Long lines at the few stations that are open. Crude cardboard signs reading ‘out of gas’, blocking incoming traffic, at the ones that are closed. Huge sales on “full sized” vehicles. Long waiting lists for econoboxes. 1973? 1979? How about 2007? (Motavalli 2000. p118, r847).
50 ‘Limits to growth’ showed us that we would run out of oil before 1992 (Meadows et al. 1972, p121, r861).
51. Ehrlich told us in 1987 that the oil crises would return in the 1990s (Ehrlich and Ehrlich, 1987. p121, r862).
52. ‘Beyond the limits’ predicts once again that we will run out of oil in 2031 and gas 2050 (Meadows at al 1992. p121, r863, r864).

8.8.7 Other resources
53. “Limits of growth 1972”, Gold would run out in 1981, silver and mercury in 1985, zinc in 1990 (Meadows et al 1972. p137, r1000).
54. The bet of Ehrlich, Harte, Holdren versus Simon. The latter challenged the established beliefs that the price of chromium, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten would increase in 10 years. (Simon 1996. p137, r1002).

8.8.8 Pollution
55. Acid rain is the invisible plague, which is creating an ecological Hiroshima (Claudi 1988. p178, r1286, r1287).
56. The UN Brundtland report stated that in Europe, acid precipitation kills forests. Several present-day ecology books repeat the charge (Christensen 2000 p178, r1288, r1289).
57. An acid plague is sweeping the Earth. One third of the German forests have been attacked, so the trees are either dead or dying. 4000 Swedish lakes are dead and 14,000 are in the process of dying. In cities all over the Earth, people are being suffocating, or dying, because the smoke cannot escape (Albert 1989. p178, r1290).
58. A group of German scientists predicted that Europe’s forests were threatened by acid rain and as many as 10 percent of all trees were at risk (Abrahamsen et al 1994. p179, r1293).
59. American Journal of Public Health in 1999: acid rain destroys forest (Rosner and Markowitz 1999. p181, r1319).
60. Sulfur in the atmosphere produces acid rain. And acid rain kills forest (Politiken 1993. p181, r1220).
61. As landfills overflow, incinerators foul the air, and neighbouring communities and states attempt to dump their overflow problems on us, we are now finally realizing that we are running out of ways to dispose of our waste in a manner that keeps it out of either sight or mind (Gore 1992. p206, r1577, r1578).
62. Almost all the existing landfills are reaching their maximum capacity, and we are running out op space to put new ones (Asimov and Pohl 1991. p206, r1580).
63. The devastating blow wreaked on the environment by the oil spill after the Gulf war will increase the impact on human life for a long time to come, and yet the events are only indicators of the coming long-term problems (Greenpeace 1992. p191, r1424).

8.8.9 Biodiversity
64. Norman Myers told 22 years ago we lost 40,000 species a year, 109 a day (Myers 1979. p249, r2005).
65. Al Gore repeats the figure (in 1992) in his Earth in the Balance (Gore 1992. p249, r2007).
66. E.O. Wilson points out that we are losing between 27,000 and 100,000 species a year (Wilson 1992. p249, r2009).
67. Paul Ehrlich estimated in 1981 that we lose some 250,000 species a year, with half the Earth’s species gone by the year 2000 and all gone by 2010-25 (cited in Stork 1997. p249, r2010).
68. Pimentel has evaluated the total worth of biodiversity an estimated it between $3-$33 trillion, 11-127 percent of the world economy (Pimentel et al. 1997, p 251, r2020).
69. Biologists do not need to know how many species there are, or how many disappear annually to recognize that Earth’s biota is entering a gigantic spasm of extinction (Ehrlich and Ehrlich 1996. p256, r2084).

8.8.10 Global warming
70. The 23 years from 1947 to 1969 averaged about 8.5 days of very violent Atlantic hurricanes, from 1970 to 1987 that dropped to 2.1 days, and in 1989-1989 rose again to 9.4 days a year (Asimov and Pohl 1991. p8, r41).
71. The polar ice caps will melt more rapidly, sea levels will rise. In Africa malaria is being found at higher and higher altitudes where it used to be too cool for the mosquitoes. There will be a lot of very bad, more dramatic weather events. There will be flooding that will be quite bad and there will be more public health crises (Clinton 1999. p259, r2108).
72. Global warming will cut agricultural productivity drastically. This would imply large-scale famines (Asimov and Pohl 1991. p287, r2363, r2364).
73. The HOT ZONE, blizzards, flood and dead butterflies, blame it all on global warming (Newsweek 1996. p289, r2381).
74. Global warming could cause droughts, disease, and political upheaval, and other nasty effects, from pestilence and famine to wars and refugee movement. Malaria could be a public health threat in Vermont. Nebraska farmers could abandon their field for lack of water (Shute et al. 2001. p289, r2382, r2383).
75. UNESCO courier shows us a picture of a large iceberg, asking us: will global warming melt the polar ice caps? (Agarwal and Narian, 1998. p289, r2385).
76. Al Gore has claimed that we know that as a result of global warming, there is more heat in the climate system, and it is heat that drives El Nino… Unless we act we can expect more extreme weather in the years ahead (Cook 1998. p292, r2429).
77. The National Wildlife Federation issued a report, predicting that increasing numbers of extreme weather will threaten and endanger species (Anon. 1999. p292, r2430).
78. Congressional Quarterly told how since the signing of the Kyoto protocol, the weather has intensified. It was a time of killer storms, waging wildfires in Florida and stifling drought in Texas. Floods in China displaced 56 million people (Pope 1998. p293, r2445).
79. Earth Island Journal linked to global warming fiercer winds, deadlier floods, longer droughts, dust storms, tornadoes (Smith 2000. p293, r2446).
80. The global environmental outlook 2000 claims that global warming models indicate to affect precipitation, wind velocity, raise the incidence of extreme weather conditions, including storms, heavy rainfall, cyclones and drought (UNEP 2000, p293, r2447).
81. Global warming causes higher temperature, where the result is that storm systems are more intense, more frequent and more destructive (WWI 1997. p294 r2471).
82. Some of the expected effects of climate change are now becoming evident. Weather related damage in 1999 was $67 billion worldwide. The damage in 1990 was five times the figure in the 1980s, a testimony to a world at the peril of ever more extreme weather (WWI 2000. p295, r2472, r2473).

Ronald, ik heb een van de artikelen waarnaar je verwijst (Rogelji et al, Nature, 2016) er eens op nageslagen. Daarin worden een aantal scenario’s doorberekend: “No policy”, “Current policy”, “INDC unconditioned “(=Parijs) en “INDC conditioned” (een soort Parijs super-plus, niet van belang voor deze discussie). “No policy” is het Worst Case Scenario, of zoals jij het hardnekkig noemt, het Business as Usual Scenario. In de woorden van de auteurs: “These are emissions projections that assume that no new climate policies have been put into place from 2005 onwards”.
In de “current policy” scenario’s zijn de meest recente emissies en de al geïmplementeerde maatregelen wel verwerkt. De Parijs afspraken zijn daarin niet meegenomen, of zoals de auteurs het omschrijven: “These (scenarios) consider the most recent estimates of global emissions and take into account implemented national policies. This is different from the INDC scenarios (described below), which reflect international pledges and intended policies. De INDC scenario’s projecteren wat de gevolgen zijn wanneer we nu wereldwijd de in Parijs gemaakte afspraken uitvoeren.
In figuur 4b staan de gemodelleerde temperatuurtrajecten voor elk van die scenario’s. Het “no policy” scenario voorziet een temperatuur stijging in 2100 van ongeveer 5 graden ten opzichte van pre-industrieel, maar dat wisten we al, ik zou bijna zeggen dat is business as usual. Interessanter is dat in het “current policy” scenario (dus ZONDER Parijs) de geprojecteerde temperatuurstijging al 2 graden lager uitkomt op ongeveer 3.2 graden. Het INDC scenario (‘Parijs’ wordt wereldwijd uitgevoerd) projecteert een stijging van 2.9 graden, dus nog 0.3 graad lager. Carbonbrief berekent de voorziene temperatuur”winst” van de Parijs afspraken ten opzichte van het “no policy scenario” en komt dan uit ±1.2 graden. Maar dat is natuurlijk de boel oplichten, begrijp je dat? Er zijn sinds 2005 namelijk allerlei maatregelen genomen en die worden niet teruggedraaid in de Parijsakkoorden. Met andere woorden, uitvoering van de Parijs akkoorden (à raison van triljarden dollars) levert in 2100 een temperatuur”winst” op van ongeveer 0.3 graden. Dat ligt in dezelfde orde van grootte als de ± 0.2 graden van “bedrieger” Lomborg. Klimaatcolporteurs bedienen zich van een oeroude middenstandstruc: eerst de prijzen hoger maken, om dan met “grote “ kortingen klanten te lokken. Vraag niet hoe het kan, maar profiteer!