I'm all for green energy, but those turbines creep me out:

http://xkcd.com/556/

Eén van de meest opmerkelijke ontboezemingen:
“sky says:

May 14, 2011 at 12:35 pm

I’ve always worried more about a catastrophic anthropogenic effect upon climate data than upon climate itself.
..
”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/14/pat-frank-the-new-science-of-climate-change/

Ik was het al eerder tegengekomen op de KNMI-site, maar nu wordt het ook elders als nieuws gebracht:

"Temperature related siting bias at the Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI)".
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/0…

Eerder stelde ik dat (historische) meteogegevens ongeschikt zijn om de trends van het klimaat met enige betrouwbaarheid (dT/dt < 1K/eeuw) te kunnen bepalen.

Ik ben niet van gedachten veranderd.

TIPPING POINTS:

Welk wetenschappelijk bewijs is er van Tipping Points? Het is inmiddels ook een gehoord parade paardje van Vellinga, zo bleek weer eens.

Hoe staat het met de wetenschappelijke onderbouwing? In de Chemie zijn er diverse voorbeelden van omslagpunten. Maar is dit voor opwarming en klimaat dan ook ineens relevant?

Op wat voor soort voorspelmodellen zijn klimaat-tipping-point op gebaseerd? Is er een erkend onderzoek gaande naar tipping point.

Waar komt nu ineens vandaan, dat Nobel-prijs-winnaars zich uitspreken voor tipping points in de "exponentiele" opwarming.

Is het een tegenkracht op het Heidelberg-appeal met evenzovele Nobelprijswinnaars, die slechts wetenschappelijk gevalideerde uitkomsten benadrukken en pure paniek-verhalen afwijzen?

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/201…

Dit is wat je noemt werkelijk "holy shit"

"De uitstoot van het broeikasgas CO2 moet in 2020 met 30 procent zijn verminderd vergeleken bij 1990, in plaats van met 20 procent.

De milieucommissie van het Europees Parlement is vandaag akkoord gegaan met een voorstel hiertoe van Europarlementariër Bas Eickhout van GroenLinks.

Volgens Eickhout is het verhogen van de doelstelling nodig om de klimaatverandering tegen te gaan. Studies wijzen volgens Eickhout uit dat door een hoger klimaatdoel miljoenen extra banen in de EU ontstaan. Ook wordt de EU minder afhankelijk van instabiele olieregio's.

Over een maand stemt het voltallige Europarlement over het voorstel van Eickhout."
http://www.baseickhout.eu/

Soms maak je van die gekke dingen mee waar een mens h-e-l-e-m-a-a-l door van slag raakt. Momenteel loopt hier een “heidesessie” van een instituut voor klinische farmacologie van een zekere universiteit over in het zingen van mooie liederen met gitaarbegeleiding.
Terwijl ik dit typ gaan de laatste tonen van ‘wind of change’ over in gerinkel van glazen en een toost op de toekomst.
Vanmiddag na de lunch had ik het met een paar van deze jonge wetenschappers over de “Atomausstieg”. Al gauw kwam het gesprek op die andere bikkelharde tak van wetenschap: klimaatkunde.
Nou, daar maken de jongens en meisjes dus geen schijfruimte voor vrij.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THNPmhBl-8I

The Chaos theoretic argument that undermines Climate Change modelling.

"Edward Lorenz, (1917, 2008) was the father of the study of Chaos, and also a weather researcher. He created an early weather simulation using three coupled equations and was amazed to find that as he progressed the simulation in time the values in the simulation behaved unpredictably.

He then looked for evidence that real world weather behaved in this same unpredictable fashion, and found it, before working on discovering more about the nature of Chaos.

No climate researchers dispute his analysis that the weather is chaotic."

en

"As can be seen, the performance on the training set gets better and better as more complexity is added to the model, but the performance of the test set gets better, and then starts to get worse!

Just to make this clear, the test set is the only thing that matters. If we are to use the model to make predictions we are going to present new data to it, just like our test set data. The performance on the training set is irrelevant."

http://scientio.blogspot.com/2011/06/chaos-theore…

Sun's Fading Spots Signal Big Drop in Solar Activity

The results of the new studies were announced today (June 14) at the annual meeting of the solar physics division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces.
http://www.space.com/11960-fading-sunspots-slower…

Selectieve kwoot:

"Currently, the sun is in the midst of the period designated as Cycle 24 and is ramping up toward the cycle's period of maximum activity. However, the recent findings indicate that the activity in the next 11-year solar cycle, Cycle 25, could be greatly reduced. In fact, some scientists are questioning whether this drop in activity could lead to a second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period from 1645 to 1715 when the sun showed virtually no sunspots."

"NOAA scientific integrity

"Scientific integrity is at the core of producing and using good science. By being open and honest about our science, we build understanding and trust."

Dr. Jane Lubchenco,

NOAA Administrator

Science is the foundation of all NOAA does. NOAA’s weather forecasts and warnings, nautical charts, climate information, fishing regulations, coastal management recommendations, and satellites in the sky all depend on science. The quality of NOAA science is exemplary, and many of NOAA’s scientists are recognized as national and international experts in their fields.

NOAA has been working to develop a scientific integrity policy that would continue and enhance NOAA’s culture of transparency, integrity, and ethical behavior.

To this end, NOAA has embarked on a thoughtful and transparent effort to draft a policy to uphold the principles of scientific integrity contained in the President’s March 9, 2009, memorandum and Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) director, John Holdren’s December 17, 2010, memorandum on scientific integrity.

Transparency is a key principle in this policy, and in keeping with this principle, we are seeking comments from the public on the draft NOAA scientific integrity policy and its accompanying procedural handbook.

Please send your feedback to integrity.noaa@noaa.gov either in an email or a MS Word document by August 15, 2011. Please include a reference to the section, sub-section, and paragraph when providing comments on specific language in the draft documents."
http://www.noaa.gov/scientificintegrity/

NOAA Working Draft

Current: June 15, 2011
http://www.noaa.gov/scientificintegrity/PDFs/DRAF…

NOAA Working Draft

Current: June 16, 2011

Page 1 of 8

DRAFT DOCUMENT

Procedural Handbook
http://www.noaa.gov/scientificintegrity/PDFs//DRA…

De temperatuur in De Bilt is de afgelopen 11 jaar met 1 graad gedaald (2000-06-18 t/m 2011-06-18, op basis van 4018 uurgemiddelden).

Op basis van de geconstrueerde CNT (Centraal Nederlands Temperatuur) is de temperatuur de afgelopen 11 jaar met 1,5 graad gedaald (mei 2000 tot mei 2011, op basis van 133 maandgemiddelden).

Links naar grafieken volgen nog i.v.m. reorganisatie van mijn website.

Earth’s Climate System Is Ridiculously Complex – With Draft Link Tutorial
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/30/earths-clim…

Wel lef hebben als je "the science is settled" onderschijft.

Third, scientists at the Met Office and elsewhere are beginning to understand the effect of the 11-year solar cycle on climate. When sunspots and other solar activity are at a minimum, the effect is similar to that of El Niño: more easterly winds and cold winter weather for Britain.

“We now believe that [the solar cycle] accounts for 50 per cent of the variability from year to year,” says Scaife. With solar physicists predicting a long-term reduction in the intensity of the solar cycle – and possibly its complete disappearance for a few decades, as happened during the so-called Maunder Minimum from 1645 to 1715 – this could be an ominous signal for icy winters ahead, despite global warming.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/35145bee-9d38-11e0…

ABSTRACT Through this controlled experiment, I demonstrate that the warming effect in a real greenhouse is not due to longwave infrared radiation trapped inside the building, but to the blockage of convective heat transfer with the surroundings, as proven by Professor Wood in his 1909 experiment.

http://www.biocab.org/Experiment_on_Greenhouses__…

http://www.elsevier.nl/web/Opinie/Simon-Rozendaal…

Vuile lucht in de vier grote steden? Onzin!

Warning of climate change’s threat to global security, Ban urges concerted action.20 July 2011 –

Climate change is a real threat to international peace and security, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said today, urging developed countries to lead the global effort to find ways to mitigate and adapt to it detrimental effects, with emerging economies shouldering their fair share of the responsibility.

“Extreme weather events continue to grow more frequent and intense in rich and poor countries alike, not only devastating lives, but also infrastructure, institutions, and budgets – an unholy brew which can create dangerous security vacuums,” said Mr. Ban, addressing the Security Council’s debate on the impact of climate change on international peace and security.

..

In a presidential statement, the Council expressed concern that possible adverse effects of climate change may, in the long run, aggravate certain existing threats to international peace and security.“The Security Council expresses concern that possible security implications of loss of territory of some States caused by sea-level-rise may arise, in particular in small low-lying island States,” said the statement read by Ambassador Peter Wittig of Germany, which holds the rotating presidency of the Security Council this month.The Council reaffirmed that UNFCCC is the key instrument for addressing climate change, recalling that provisions of the Convention acknowledge the global nature of climate change and calls for the widest possible cooperation by all countries and their participation in an effective and appropriate response.

Lees het hier:
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=3909…

Science of Doom verdiept zich terecht in statistiek: <a href="http://scienceofdoom.com/2011/07/28/statistics-and-climate-%e2%80%93-part-two/

” target=”_blank”>http://scienceofdoom.com/2011/07/28/statistics-and-climate-%e2%80%93-part-two/

So, in summary, when you see a test “at the 5% significance level” =95%, or at the “1% significance level” = 99%, you have to understand that the more impressive the significance level, the more likely that a false result has been accepted.
..
In all the basic elements we have covered so far we have assumed that each element in a sample and in a population is unrelated to any other element – independent events. Unfortunately, in the atmosphere and in climate, this assumption is not true (perhaps there are some circumstances where it is true, but generally it is not true).

MPs call for research data to be fully disclosed and made publicly available.

– Report indicates that the oversight of research integrity in the UK is unsatisfactory.

– The Committee found that the integrity of the peer-review process can only ever be as robust as the integrity of the people involved.

– The UK does not seem to have an oversight body for research integrity covering advice and assurance functions across all disciplines and the Committee recommends the creation of an external regulator.

– The report highlights concerns about the use of journal Impact Factor as a proxy measure for the quality of research or of individual articles. (more ..)

Het hele rapport staat hier:
http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/comm…