Wolken voor de zon – waarschuwing voor beleggers

Eerder schreef ik over de ontwikkelingen op het terrein van hernieuwbare energie, waarbij ik onder meer aandacht schonk aan de (aanstaande) faillissementen van SunEdison en Ivanpah in de VS.

Zijn dit uitzonderingen of is dit de voorbode van een algemene ondergang van de sector? Volgens Will Ebiefung is het de spreekwoordelijke kanarie in de kolenmijn en zullen er nog meer bedrijven het loodje leggen, zeker wanneer de subsidies worden gestopt, hetgeen volgens plan dit jaar in de VS al het geval zou moeten zijn. Ik ben er overigens niet zeker van of dit inderdaad zal gebeuren. Groengerande politici weten altijd wel weer redenen te verzinnen om dit soort subsidieregelingen te verlengen.

Onder de titel, ‘SunEdison Is The Canary In The Coal Mine For Solar Energy’, schreef Will Ebiefung

I recently made an article on the topic of SunEdison (NYSE:SUNE) and renewable energy in general.

This article received massive backlash, some of which was reasonable but most of which came from SUNE investors who are unwilling to accept the fact that they made bad investment. Instead taking every criticism of the company as a personal attack.

Many asserted that my position is incorrect, underresearched and underdeveloped. They argue that renewable energy does in fact have a future and that I just don’t have all the information. Well I am here to reiterate: No it doesn’t. At least not in solar energy. SUNE was the canary in the coal mine for an industry that is fundamentally unsound. I will present to you the numbers that led me to this conclusion and let you decide for yourself.

The first rule of investing is to make decisions with your mind not your heart. Investing with your emotions is the best way to lose your money. While I love the environment as much as anyone it is simply not logical to let this feeling drive me to make unsound investments.

This is an industry where the government picks the winners and losers and when Uncle Sam leaves the room everyone will collapse. …

The federal government has provided wind and solar developers with as much as 24 billion dollars in subsidies between 2008 and 2014. This subsidy is set to end in 2016. Panic that the punch bowl would be taken away was the MAIN factor that pushed SUNE and its rivals into frantic spending sprees, developments and acquisitions. Driving them into debt and towards eventual collapse.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) expects solar installation production to drop by as much as 70% when the government subsidies end.

This is estimated to cost the solar industry 100,000 jobs and end 25 billion dollars of economic activity. Worst off all, when solar energy welfare is gone how on earth will they compete with their number one rival? …

Solar energy cannot compete with $40 oil and cheap natural gas. To make matters worse fracking has imposed a new ceiling on fossil fuel prices, making it very unlikely that they will ever rise to a level where solar energy is competitive again. …

Solar energy is not even clean or renewable. This is the final nail in the coffin and the reason why even environmentalists should disregard solar energy. It is not clean or renewable. Solar panels are made with silicon, a material that needs to be mined and processed via the use of fossil fuels. On top of this silicon itself is not renewable (although it is plentiful).

If that was not bad enough, we now know that creating the panels results in the production of caustic chemicals like Sodium hydroxide and hydrofluoric acid. Chinese Panel maker Jinko Solar has been investigated for dumping toxic waste chemicals into the environment. This is not what green energy looks like. This is “feel good” energy that hides its true environmental cost for the benefit of people who are unwilling to accept the truth.

Ebiefung concludeert:

• Zonne–energie is niet de energie van de toekomst. SunEdison zal niet het laatste bedrijf in deze sector zijn dat failliet gaat.

• De zonne–energiesector kan niet overleven zonder overheidssubsidies.

• Prijsdalingen van olie en gas en de opkomst van schaliegas en –olie hebben het lot van zonne–energie bezegeld.

Lees verder hier.

‘Klimaatontwrichting’ is in geen velden of wegen te bekennen, beleidsgeïnduceerde economische ontwrichting des te meer!

Voor mijn eerdere bijdragen over klimaat en aanverwante zaken zie hier, hier, hier, hier en hier.